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Hedges v Brown preview and prediction

Barry Jones has studied two unbeaten British cruiserweights taking the biggest risk of their young careers. Pat Brown brings perfect knockout numbers and a home crowd. John Hedges brings height, movement and much more professional experience. Barry explains why those strengths should make this fascinating before one man takes control.

Expert Opinion
Barry Jones, Boxing analyst

Barry JonesHedges v BrownCruiserweight titles

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Barry Jones on Hedges v Brown

The verdict

Barry Jones goes for Pat Brown inside the distance. "I do think he gets the stoppage," he says, although he expects Hedges to dig in and make this the first real test of Brown's professional career. Hedges should have success early with his movement, jab, hand speed and foot speed, but Barry does not believe he can keep Brown away for twelve rounds. His call is "a stoppage anywhere from five to seven" for Pat Brown.

Barry Jones begins with the matchmaking. Both men are unbeaten and still early in their professional careers, but neither has protected his record. "It is nice to see two young kids, early in their careers, take that risk and have the faith in their ability," he says. For Barry, accepting a British title fight at this stage says plenty about the confidence on both sides.

Brown is the clear favourite, fighting in Manchester with a perfect stoppage record. "He looks a real force of nature, big, strong, powerful with very fast hands," Barry says. That combination of size, power and speed makes Brown dangerous whenever he is able to set his feet and attack. There is still an opening for Hedges, however. "He is hittable because he is so offensive," Barry adds. Brown appears able to walk through shots, but he is not a difficult target to find.

That is where Hedges enters the argument. Barry sees a fleet footed boxer who can stay mobile, work behind his jab and punish Brown when he misses. Hedges is not known as a knockout puncher, but Barry warns against reading too much into that record. "Just because you cannot punch does not mean you cannot take a punch," he says. "It does not mean that you do not have strength inside." Brown may expect to walk through Hedges, wear him down and force the stoppage, but Hedges has the movement and hand speed to make him work for it.

The difficulty is sustaining that plan. Brown has more craft than his aggressive style sometimes suggests. "He moves his feet really well around the target when he throws shots, he finds the angles when he is offensive and he is always offensive," Barry says. Hedges can use his hand speed and foot speed to keep himself out of trouble for a time, but Barry expects him to spend the fight responding to Brown. "He will be the reactive fighter throughout this contest," he says, and that should eventually give Brown control.

Fight summary

Why Brown’s pressure can overcome Hedges

Leon Hughes

Head Editor

This is an excellent piece of matchmaking. Brown has only six professional contests behind him, while Hedges has twice that number and has already completed ten rounds against Nathan Quarless and Ellis Zorro. Both are unbeaten, both are still developing and both have accepted a meaningful domestic title fight before reaching their peak.

Brown’s case starts with his power. Six wins and six stoppages make him the obvious favourite, but his appeal is not limited to raw force. He cuts the ring, works to the body and keeps punching once an opponent gives ground. His eighth round stoppage of Vasil Ducar showed that his threat can survive beyond the opening exchanges.

Hedges presents a very different challenge. At 6ft 6in and fighting southpaw, he can control long range with his jab and make an aggressive opponent cross a lot of space. Victories over Quarless and Zorro give him the deeper professional record.

For Hedges, the route to victory is disciplined movement. He must score with the straight left and leave before the favourite can work to the body. The difficulty is sustaining that plan against a fighter who is comfortable pressing forward. Brown should make Hedges work at a pace that eventually slows his feet. Once the ropes become a regular part of the fight, Brown’s shorter punches and body attacks can take over. Hedges has the tools to ask serious questions, but Brown’s pressure, speed and power make Barry’s middle round stoppage prediction convincing.

Expected undercard

Also on the bill

  • Shabaz Masoud v Ckari Mansilla

    Vacant IBF Intercontinental and WBA International titles

    Featherweight
  • Kieron Conway v Mark Jeffers

    British title eliminator

    Super middleweight
  • Joe Howarth v Josh Holmes

    Ten rounds

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  • Tom Rafferty v Liam Walsh

    Eight rounds

    Middleweight
  • Alfie Middlemiss v Gerard Hughes

    Eight rounds

    Featherweight
  • Garan Croft v Mohammed Graich

    Eight rounds

    Super welterweight

Card subject to change. All bouts and weights to be confirmed.

About the pundit

Barry Jones, Boxing analyst

Barry Jones

Boxing analyst

Barry Jones is a former WBO world champion and an experienced television boxing analyst. His previews combine a fighter’s understanding of distance and tactics with a clear reading of how a contest is likely to unfold.

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