Waste Management Phoenix Open, Tips & Odds

Jordan Spieth's Scottsdale Surge: A Promising Bet

The lineup for the event could be flashier, but it's all about timing. The PGA Tour's got a busy schedule with big events like Pebble Beach last week and Riviera coming up next, giving the stars a solid excuse to skip Phoenix if they were leaning that way anyway.

The twist? Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland, deciding to join in after the deadline, either pulled off a funny stunt, stepped on some toes given the mood of the moment, or just added to the pile of shake-ups. Alongside them, big names like Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Tommy Fleetwood, Jason Day, and Ludvig Aberg are sitting this one out.

A Longshot

Hideki Matsuyama - 66/1

Matsuyama has struggled a little since that golden 2021 and it's more than two years since he won the Sony Open, but he popped up following two missed cuts to finish fifth at Sawgrass last March and thereafter produced a sustained run of solid golf.

There really didn't look to be much wrong with his game for the most part, bar that putter of his of course, and finishes of 30th in the Sony and then an improved 13th at Torrey Pines to begin 2024 suggested he might be able to press on in the coming months.

Finishing 71st of 80 players at Pebble Beach is a problem but Matsuyama had never played in that event and for the second time in three starts, he showed promise off the tee. We know all about his scope to lead any field in the approach stats, something he last did at the US Open, and he's sublime around the greens, too.

Returning to Scottsdale in a weak field represents by far the best time to chance him and it's worth saying that he ranked 29th and 47th in putting for his wins here, 55th when fourth on debut, 27th when second, and 17th when eighth. Two other top-20s saw him putt particularly poorly and he may not need much better than average.

We've no guarantee he can bring his best long-game but if it's going to happen it may well be here, and I feel amply compensated for the risks attached to his name when we're talking 50/1. If you can't access the 45/1 with eight places, take 50s with five or six.

I've often felt this should be a good place for Corey Conners but he's yet to show it, while Eric Cole could do with driving it a bit better and Si Woo Kim is going to need to hole a putt or two. All three were considered at similar odds to Matsuyama, but the former Masters champion is the one we can afford to risk in the circumstances.

Win Again?

Scottie Scheffler - 5/1

Scottie Scheffler aiming for a third straight win at the course is already a big deal, but with odds at 5/1, it's tempting to back him as the favorite. The fact that Scottsdale is known for being a top spot for ball-striking, where even the not-so-great putters have managed to come out on top, just adds to the confidence.

I'm all for encouraging a bet on him. Considering that nine out of the last 14 winners here since 2010 were top-notch in strokes-gained approach, including Scheffler last year, it's clear he's got the best long game around. So, if you're okay with overlooking a few missed short putts and aren't too worried about other top players who've missed out on their third wins recently, then betting on Scheffler could be a pretty straightforward choice.

Putt it right

Jordan Spieth - 16/1

I'm really leaning towards backing Jordan Spieth this time, especially considering the odds are similar to what they were last week when a lot of folks had high hopes for him. The only hiccup in his game lately has been his putting.

While his putting hasn't been what it used to be, he was on fire with it at The Sentry. Even though he hasn't always shone at Scottsdale, he's generally fared better on greens that aren't as unpredictable as the ones at Pebble Beach, which he loves.

Spieth seems to really vibe with Scottsdale. His tee-to-green performance there is even better than at other courses where he's comfortable, like Harbour Town or Pebble Beach. This is reflected in his four top-10 finishes at Scottsdale, showcasing his exceptional approach play.

Spieth's game has been on the up this season, with noticeable improvements in his driving and approach, highlighted by his performance at Pebble Beach. He's feeling confident, mentioning how good his game felt and that he's in a position to win if he just executes his plans.

He's coming off a break and seems ready to hit Scottsdale in top form. Last year, he made all 18 greens in one round there, a first in nearly a decade for him. While his putting at Scottsdale hasn't always been great, it's too soon to say he can't handle these greens.

With some key players missing, Spieth's strong approach game, his recent form, and his history at Scottsdale make him a compelling pick at 16/1 or better. It's an excellent chance, especially if Scheffler's putting falters. While Justin Thomas is also a strong contender, Spieth's odds seem more appealing given his affinity for Scottsdale and his current form.

Follow The Form

Erik van Rooyen - 80/1

Erik van Rooyen is on a hot streak, and I'm really liking his chances. Even though Kurt Kitayama had a solid debut at the Phoenix Open, finishing 23rd despite a tough start, and has improved since, his struggle with the putter since May is a concern. Given the winners this event has seen, like Kevin Stadler, Bubba Watson, and Gary Woodland, Kitayama will need to step up his putting game to clinch a win. Gary Woodland's showing signs of getting back on track after surgery, but for my bets, I'm leaning towards Erik van Rooyen.

Van Rooyen has been on fire since his emotional victory in November, showing consistent performance leading up to and following that win in Mexico. His 2024 has kicked off strong, with every round played so far being under par, and a 20th place finish last week showing significant improvement from his earlier Pebble Beach outings.

While he's shown brilliance off the tee or with his approaches, he's yet to combine those strengths effectively this season. However, Scottsdale could be the turning point, given his gains in both ball-striking areas there last year, despite an overall rough patch. His previous performances, including a missed cut in early 2021, don't reflect his current form, making this course seem like a perfect match for his powerful play.

Van Rooyen's consistent top-25 finishes in desert conditions, including his first PGA Tour win in a similar environment, reinforce my belief that Scottsdale is a much better fit for him than Pebble Beach. With the field not as strong, maintaining his current form could very well see him in contention, and at 100/1 odds, he's my top pick for a dark horse.

Overview