7 minutes The Professor digs deep into the stat book to point out some winners on the last day Of the Cheltenham Festival.
The Professor looks into some final day insights at the Cheltenham Festival. Can we find some winners using racing data.
1:30 Cheltenham
Key Trends
- Analyzed between 18 to 55 days ago, there have been ten winners in the most recent ten events.
- Winners have a success rate of at least 50% in hurdle races, with 9 out of 10 achieving this (the exception was still a maiden).
- Achieved a top-two finish in their last appearance, with this being true for 9 out of 10 (six of whom won their last race).
- Originating from a Group 1-winning sire, this applies to 8 out of the 10 analyzed.
- Hold an Adjusted Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 150 or more, seen in 8 out of 10 cases.
- Participated in no more than three hurdle races, observed in 7 out of 10 instances.
Additional Insights
- Half of the last ten victors were unbeaten in hurdle races, with two having competed only once.
- Six of the winners had previously won Graded events.
- Three victors had experience racing on the Flat in Britain, Ireland, or France, each with a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of at least 77.
- Following the Fred Winter Hurdle's introduction in 2005, 16 out of 19 winners had a Starting Price (SP) of 10-1 or shorter.
Tip
Willie Mullins appears to be in a favorable position with Storm Heart potentially being his top contender among seven participants. Nevertheless, considering the trend of winners having a Group 1-winning sire, Nurburgring presents a promising bet under trainer Joseph O'Brien, who achieved victory in the Boodles on Tuesday. For those looking at longer odds, Salver emerges as a noteworthy choice.
2:10 Cheltenham
Key Trends
- Most winners are aged six or seven, observed in 8 out of 10 instances.
- Hold an Adjusted Racing Post Rating (RPR) of at least 147, noted in 8 out of 10 cases.
- Experienced two to six runs over hurdles, a trend seen in 7 out of 10 competitors.
- Rated within 11lb of the top-rated RPR, applicable to 7 out of 10 participants.
- Achieved victory over a distance of at least 2m4½f, noted in 6 out of 10 cases.
- Secured a top-three finish in a Graded hurdle during their last outing, with only one managing a win, applicable to 6 out of 10 instances.
Additional Insights
- Only four winners had previously won a Graded hurdle race.
- Interestingly, none of the last ten winners were the RPR top-rated.
Tip
This race highlights Willie Mullins-trained runners as the key contenders, with Readin Tommy Wrong leading the market, followed by Dancing City and High Class Hero among the favorites. However, the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle often produces winners with longer odds, making Lecky Watson, one of Mullins' less fancied entrants, a notable contender due to his alignment with the identified trends. On the home front, Captain Teague, winner of the Challow Hurdle, stands out as a strong competitor.
3:30 Cheltenham
Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase
Key Trends
- Winners are typically aged between seven and nine, a pattern seen in 10 out of 10 cases.
- 9 out of 10 winners have clinched a Grade 1 chase.
- Competitors have no more than 13 starts over fences, noted in 9 out of 10 instances.
- Hold an Adjusted Racing Post Rating (RPR) of at least 172, observed in 9 out of 10 cases.
- Victorious over distances of at least 3m, seen in 9 out of 10 instances.
- Limited to no more than four races in the season, applicable to 9 out of 10.
- Within 9lb of the RPR top-rated, a trend among 8 out of 10 winners.
- Won a Graded chase within the season, observed in 8 out of 10 cases.
- Previously won or placed at the festival, true for 8 out of 10.
Additional Insights
- Coneygree's 2015 victory marked the first time a horse that hadn't competed at a previous festival won since Imperial Call in 1996, and the first novice winner since Captain Christy in 1974.
- Four of the last ten winners participated in the King George or Savills Chase (formerly Lexus) during the same season.
Tip
Securing back-to-back victories in this prestigious race poses a challenge, yet GALOPIN DES CHAMPS emerges as a strong contender, perfectly fitting the profile for another Gold Cup win. Fastorslow stands out as well, having bested the favorite in two out of three encounters and aligning closely with the key trends, making him a prime candidate. Bravemansgame and L'Homme Presse represent Britain's best hopes, but surpassing the leading contenders might prove difficult. King George victor Hewick warrants respect but might find the conditions less than ideal, leaving Gerri Colombe as a compelling choice to potentially challenge the market leaders.
4:10 Cheltenham
St. James's Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters' Chase
Key Trends
- Predominantly aged ten or eleven, matching 9 out of 10 previous winners.
- Achieved victory over distances of at least 3 miles, noted in 8 out of 10 instances.
- Secured a top-three finish in their last outing, observed in 8 out of 10 cases.
- Hold an Adjusted Racing Post Rating (RPR) of at least 139, a characteristic of 7 out of 10 competitors.
- Rated within 9lb of the top-rated RPR, with the only exceptions being 18lb to 29lb off the top, applicable to 7 out of 10 winners.
Additional Insights
- The performance record for the previous year's winner stands at 141P7F.
- Since 2012, there have been three instances of back-to-back winners: Salsify (2012-13), On The Fringe (2015-16), and Pacha Du Polder (2017-18), with the last occurrence before this sequence being Double Silk in 1993-94.
- Five of the winners had previously competed at a Cheltenham festival.
- Competitors aged 12 or older have not won in the last ten years, with the exception being the 13-year-old Earthmover in 2004, the only winner from this age group since 1990.
Tip
Despite not being listed at 66-1 odds like last year, PREMIER MAGIC remains an undervalued contender, demonstrating strong adherence to the identified trends. His triumph a year ago was no stroke of luck, evidenced by three consecutive victories since. Billaway, the 2022 winner, is acknowledged for his capabilities but faces challenges due to his age, making last year's second-placer, Its On The Line, a more formidable threat, followed closely by Ferns Lock.
4:50 Cheltenham
Key Trends
- Secured a top-three finish in at least one of their last two outings, observed in 9 out of 10 cases.
- Participated in no more than eight hurdle races, noted in 9 out of 10 competitors.
- Officially rated between 137 and 145, a common trait among 9 out of 10 entries.
- Primarily aged five or six, seen in 8 out of 10 instances.
- Achieved at least one win in the current season, applicable to 8 out of 10 participants.
- Rated within 5lb of the top-rated Racing Post Rating (RPR), applicable in 7 out of 10 cases.
Additional Insights
- Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, and Joseph O'Brien have trained all eight Irish winners, with four of these victories attributed to horses owned by Gigginstown.
- From 2012 to 2017, winners carried weights ranging from 11st 1lb to 11st 7lb. However, in four of the last six editions, the winning horses carried 11st 9lb or 11st 10lb.
- Willie Mullins trained the last two winners rated lower than 137: Killultagh Vic in 2015 and Sir Des Champs in 2011.
Tip
Willie Mullins and Gigginstown have historically dominated this event with horses that have fewer races under their belt, and QUAI DE BOURBON perfectly fits this profile. Gordon Elliott’s entrants, Better Days Ahead and Yeats Star, stand out as formidable contenders, with Better Days Ahead posing the most significant challenge. Despite No Ordinary Joe’s stable facing difficulties, his runner-up position last year and a notable third place at Kempton last month suggest he shouldn't be discounted easily.