8 minutes Resident tipster Barry Hill gives his verdict on todays feature race, The Lincoln Handicap.
This weekend marks the onset of the 2024 Flat turf season in Britain, highlighted by the traditional Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster. The race, known for its historical competitiveness, spans a mile and is tentatively scheduled for 3:35 pm.
Migration, trained by David Menuisier, clinched the title in last year's race and aims for a consecutive victory in this year's event. Currently, Liberty Lane leads the betting odds.
Who will rise to the occasion or surpass expectations? We'll explore some of the frontrunners and a few dark horses with the potential to defy their odds before making one or two predictions.
Lincoln Runners
Liberty Lane - 4/1
Liberty Lane, currently at 4/1, stands out as a principal competitor, despite a disappointing performance in the Cambridgeshire Handicap at Newmarket in his most recent race. His victory prior to that, over the same distance and course, demonstrates potential. Since his debut win at Nottingham, Karl Burke’s horse has faced challenging competitions and underwent gelding during the winter break.
With an initial rating of 97, he appears generously marked, especially considering his win over the 106-rated Sonny Liston. However, it seems there might be contenders better suited for victory. The conditions of the race won't disadvantage him, but his last outing leaves much to be desired, and his current odds appear tight for such a fiercely contested event. For these reasons, it might be prudent to overlook him in this instance.
Chazzesmee - 11/2
Chazzesmee, priced at 11/2, is Tommy Stack’s sole entry in the race, coming off a significant victory in the Irish Lincoln at the Curragh just five days prior. Showing consistent improvement with each race, Chazzesmee has demonstrated versatility across varying ground conditions, performing well on both heavy and good surfaces.
Though facing a sterner challenge in this race compared to his recent win, there’s potential for Chazzesmee to step up and deliver a notable performance. His recent success and adaptability make him a compelling choice for those following the Irish contingent. Despite the short recovery period since his last race, Chazzesmee is regarded as a serious contender, potentially possessing a better opportunity for success than Liberty Lane, in my assessment.
Awaal - 11/2
Awaal, priced at 11/2, offers a promising prospect for this four-year-old. Set to run under the same conditions that led him to a second-place finish last year, with Harry Davies as the jockey, there's a strong case for his candidacy. His performance history bolsters his chances; he secured third place in both the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot and the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket from a mark of 105, before achieving a placement in a Listed race at Carlisle.
His last appearance was less impressive in the Balmoral Handicap, marred by a draw bias that favored horses in lower draw numbers — eight of the top ten finishers were from single-digit draws. Despite his strong track record, concerns about his pricing and previous losses to some competitors may give pause to potential backers.
Lattam - 10/1
Lattam, offered at 10/1, comes into this race with a notable pedigree, having been previously under the guidance of William Haggas. He clinched victory in the Irish Lincoln last year and is currently just a pound heavier than his winning mark at Newcastle on the all-weather track in June.
Now five years old, Lattam has shown commendable performance even in losses, highlighted by a seventh-place finish in the Balmoral Handicap in his most recent outing. Given his form, there's an indication that he might still have untapped potential at this distance. With a preference for soft ground, which works to his advantage, dismissing Lattam's chances could be a mistake. He emerges as a contender whose capability on race day could surprise.
Johan - 12/1
Johan, with odds of 12/1, is presented as a resilient and sturdy seven-year-old contender, having previously clinched this race at generous odds two years back. His victory in the Golden Mile at Goodwood last season adds to his accolades, showcasing his capability at this competitive level despite potentially reaching his limit in terms of handicapping.
His recent performance, a commendable fifth place in a Listed race, coupled with a solid track record when returning from a break, indicates readiness and potential. Although achieving a win here would demand surpassing his previous bests, particularly under less than ideal conditions, Johan's proven resilience and quality suggest he remains a noteworthy contender for a top finish, with a realistic shot at securing a dual victory in this challenging race.
The Gatekeeper - 12/1
The Gatekeeper, listed at 12/1, enters the fray as the victor of the Balmoral Handicap in his most recent appearance. Despite a tendency towards erratic performances, with occasional disappointing runs, his overall capability is undeniable. However, there's a suggestion that he may currently be somewhat constrained by his handicap, sitting four pounds higher than in his last outing.
On the positive side, The Gatekeeper has demonstrated a commendable ability to perform well after a break, boasting a perfect record of two wins from two starts when returning to the track. This, coupled with the proven track record of his trainer and jockey in similar competitions, lends him a non-negligible chance. While there are considerations about his current form and handicap rating, his knack for coming back strong from rests could position him as a dark horse in the competition.
Migration - 14/1
Migration, with odds of 14/1, carries the challenge of top weight into this race. Despite this, the eight-year-old finds himself on favorable ground, reminiscent of the conditions under which he secured a comfortable victory in last year’s race. Although his performances have been less than stellar in his last three outings, there is confidence that his trainer has meticulously prepared him for a shot at repeating his success.
Paddy Bradley, taking the reins for this race, offers an advantage by reducing the load by an additional three pounds. This adjustment means that while Migration will require some fortuitous openings during the race, his potential to emerge as a key contender remains high if he can navigate the field effectively. He presents a solid each-way bet for those looking for value.
Thunder Ball - 20/1
Thunder Ball, priced at 20/1, is a four-year-old that displayed notable improvement over the last season, culminating in a peak performance with a victory at Goodwood on soft ground, piloted by today's jockey. This victory's significance is further highlighted by the subsequent success of Grey's Monument, who finished third in that race and has since secured a win, indicating the strength of the form to some degree.
However, despite these positives, Thunder Ball's comeback performance last year was less than impressive, casting some doubts on his capability at this level of competition. Given this mixed record and the challenging nature of the field, there's a concern that he might find the competition in this race somewhat beyond his current scope.
Vetiver - 20/1
Vetiver, with odds of 20/1, is a filly trained by Andrew Balding that has secured victories in three of her seven starts. Her most recent outing saw her deliver a commendable performance to finish fifth behind The Gatekeeper in the Balmoral Handicap. While she was in a good position throughout that race, it's clear that additional progress is needed for her to secure a win in future contests.
Benefitting from a favorable draw in stall nine, Vetiver could find this an advantage in her upcoming race. However, despite this seemingly advantageous starting position, the competition includes several participants who may be more favorably handicapped. Her past successes hint at potential, but overcoming the challenge posed by a strong field will require Vetiver to elevate her performance beyond what we've seen to date.
Parlando - 50/1
Parlando, listed at 50/1, emerges as an intriguing choice from Ian Williams' stable, standing out due to his relatively untapped potential. Originally acquired from the Godolphin team for a significant amount, his performance record in the UK boasts impressive consistency, marked by the sequence 123332. Adding to his appeal, Parlando has shown promising form abroad, securing a win in Bahrain just last month.
While his current achievements suggest a need for substantial improvement to contend seriously in this race, the decision by his handler to enter him, rather than opting for a seemingly easier challenge elsewhere, hints at an underlying confidence. With a handicap mark of 86, which might be considered generous, Parlando presents a case for potentially delivering a performance that far exceeds his long odds, making him a captivating underdog in this contest.
My Lincoln Tip
LATTAM - 10/1
LATTAM, offered at compelling odds of 10/1, is making his stable debut under the guidance of the Julie Camacho team, presenting an attractive proposition in this distinguished renewal. Despite recent outings not playing to his strengths, the anticipated combination of a brisk pace and challenging ground conditions could align perfectly with his capabilities. As the victor of last year’s Irish Lincoln, LATTAM brings a relatively fresh profile into the race, enhancing his appeal as a strong contender capable of challenging and possibly surpassing the favorites, who may be overvalued in the betting market. This scenario positions him as a notable pick, particularly for those seeking value against the backdrop of an overly optimistic market.
