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Conservatives Set To Lose London

London Constituency Odds: Conservatives Set to Lose Nearly All London Seats

The Conservatives are on the brink of losing all but five constituencies in London, according to the latest betting odds. With the general election fast approaching, current polls offer little comfort to the Conservative party, indicating a significant shift towards Labour.

Election Projections

Polls suggest that Labour is on track to achieve one of the largest majorities in a decade. Based on current odds, Labour is projected to win 436 seats compared to the Conservatives' 122. The interactive chart below shows the projected seat distribution for each party based on constituency odds.

London Constituency Details

Out of the 20 seats the Conservatives currently hold in London, only five are expected to remain under their control. The other seats are likely to be won by Labour or the Liberal Democrats. The five constituencies most likely to stay Conservative are:

ConstituencyOddsImplied Probability
Hornchurch and Upminster1/267%
Old Bexley and Sidcup1/889%
Orpington4/969%
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner4/660%
Sutton and Cheam11/1048%

Conservative MP Resignations

This anticipated shift comes amid several recent resignations by Conservative MPs, including:

  • Matthew Offord (Hendon)
  • Mike Freer (Finchley and Golders Green)
  • Nickie Aiken (Cities of London and Westminster)

These departures contribute to the challenges the Conservative party faces in retaining their seats in London.

Here is the list of political parties and the number of seats they are favored to win according to the betting odds:

  1. Labour: 436
  2. Conservatives: 122
  3. Liberal Democrats: 48
  4. SNP: 16
  5. Sinn Fein: 7
  6. DUP: 7
  7. Plaid Cymru: 5
  8. SDLP: 1
  9. Green: 2
  10. Alliance: 1
  11. Independent: 1
  12. UUP: 1
  13. Reform: 1

General Election

Labour is given a 93% chance of securing the most seats, with odds of 1/14, while the Conservatives have much longer odds at 13/2โ€‹ . Additionally, modelling by Electoral Calculus suggests Labour could win a significant majority in the House of Commons, with predictions indicating around 342 seats for Labour compared to just 37 for the Conservativesโ€‹.

The Conservatives, under Rishi Sunak, face significant challenges, including internal party divisions and low public approval. Sunak's odds of remaining Prime Minister are much lower, standing at 5/1, compared to Keir Starmer's 1/6โ€‹.

These projections reflect a dramatic shift from the 2019 general election, where the Conservatives won a substantial majority. If these trends hold, Labour is likely to form the next government, potentially with a solid majority.