Barry Hill's Royal Ascot Tips - Day 3
Another day went to the bookies yesterday with more big price winers and well backed horses not even getting placed. The fight back iso on.
2:30 Ascot
Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies)
AESTERIUS - 8/1
Archie Watson has an outstanding record at Royal Ascot and came within a nose of winning the Coventry Stakes for the second time on the first day of the meeting. Clearly, his horses excel on the straight track, and in the opening Norfolk Stakes (2.30), it's worth keeping a close eye on AESTERIUS , who was highly impressive on his debut at Bath.
A costly breeze-up purchase by Wathnan Racing, though not as expensive as Shareholder, ridden by their retained jockey James Doyle, Aesterius took a bit of time to find his stride on his sole start but was surging ahead at the finish. I was particularly impressed by how he accelerated through the gears in the final furlong.
Of course, this race is more challenging with Shareholder and Whistlejacket competing against him. However, Shareholder made several mistakes when narrowly winning on his debut at Beverley, and the time wasn't particularly impressive either. Additionally, I'm not entirely convinced that Whistlejacket's form is as strong as it is being portrayed.
3:05 Ascot
King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
PONIROS - 7/1
Aidan O'Brien's Chantilly leads the early betting after finishing third at Newbury. As a son of Galileo, the increased distance might bring some improvement. However, he could find it challenging to reverse the placings with the runner-up from that race, PONIROS, who has ample potential to benefit from the extra couple of furlongs and has a favourable draw.
Naval Force, trained by Donnacha O'Brien, showed significant potential by overcoming lost lengths at every bend to win at Roscommon over a shorter distance. He could perform well at a big price if he maintains a straight course.
Going The Distance and Persica are other runners to consider, although they might now be feeling the effects of the handicapper.
3:45 Ascot
Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies)
DIAMOND RAIN - 13/8 (NAP)
DIAMOND RAIN looks supreme for Charlie Appleby and William Buick. Supplemented for this race after her blistering Listed victory at Newbury last month, she still appeared inexperienced despite winning comfortably. This longer distance should suit her ideally, and she has a lot of potential for further improvement.
You Got To Me finished a commendable fourth in the Oaks, and many fillies who perform well in that Classic tend to do well in this race. The soft ground may not have suited her at Epsom, given that she won the Lingfield Oaks Trial on much quicker ground. Today's faster surface should be beneficial.
Kalpana looked like she was crying out for this distance when she stayed on strongly to finish second over 1m2f at Newmarket last month. Although she faces tougher competition here, she is on the rise for Andrew Balding.
Siyola was four lengths behind Diamond Rain at Newbury last time and will need to find significant improvement to figure here.
Forest Fairy, who won the Cheshire Oaks before showing little at Epsom, might perform much better on this conventional track. A place in the frame is not out of the question.
Port Fairy, just a head behind Forest Fairy at Chester, is bred to improve for this stiffer test of stamina.
4:25 Ascot
Gold Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series)
KYPRIOS - 11/8
The classy KYPRIOS was a standout winner of this race in 2022, a year in which he added three more Group 1 victories to his already impressive résumé. Although injury kept him out for much of 2023, he has looked strong in his two starts this year, albeit at a lower level. As a son of Galileo, he has the potential to reaffirm his status as the top stayer.
Trawlerman, who bested Kyprios on Champions Day in October and later finished a respectable third in the Dubai Gold Cup in March, may not find the conditions to his liking this time. In contrast, Coltrane should be in top form after defeating Caius Chorister (second) and Sweet William (third) in the Sagaro Stakes last month.
Other notable contenders include the unexposed stayer Gregory and the Willie Mullins-trained Vauban, both of whom could pose significant challenges.
5:05 Ascot
Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings)
QIRAT - 15/2
This year's renewal of arguably the most competitive three-year-old handicap of the season appears as open as ever. Native Warrior, who won comfortably in a Nottingham maiden last month, makes his handicap debut at what seems a manageable mark. With a favorable draw in stall 31, the son of Wootton Bassett is certainly in contention. However, QIRAT takes the edge after impressively overcoming a difficult run at Goodwood in late May. A 4lb increase in ratings might underestimate Ralph Beckett's contender, suggesting another significant win could be on the cards. The hat-trick seeking Volterra is not to be dismissed despite moving up in class, and a first-time visor could enhance the performance of Aidan O'Brien's Air Commander. Meanwhile, Follow Me, another Irish raider, comes off a career-best win at the Curragh, making the Shalaa colt a strong each-way prospect.
5:40 Ascot
Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3)
FIRST LOOK - 5/1
FIRST LOOK is poised to capitalize on a drop in grade after a commendable second-place finish in the Prix du Jockey Club 18 days ago. The going at Chantilly was extremely challenging when André Fabre’s Lope De Vega colt, already a podium finisher in Group 3 races at the same venue and Longchamp, competed in the French version of the Derby. Today, First Look encounters a faster racing surface.
If James Doyle’s partner can replicate that performance—having finished strongly to be just a couple of lengths behind at the line—the French raider has a strong chance to make an impact as he steps down two classes. King’s Gambit, moving up to Group 3 level after a dominant four-length victory in Newbury’s London Gold Cup handicap, poses the biggest threat. Additionally, Bracken’s Laugh and Bellum Justum are worth considering in the mix.
6:15 Ascot
Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap)
FRESH - 11/1
FRESH is an exciting prospect as he returns to his preferred hunting ground. With 14 appearances at Royal Berkshire, many in highly competitive handicaps, James Fanshawe’s reliable performer has secured three wins and four in-the-frame finishes.
However, supporters should note that the seven-year-old is currently on a 13-race losing streak, last winning a course-and-distance handicap in September 2022. The good news is that Fresh will be competing from a 10lb lower mark of 92 today.
Additionally, there were promising signs in his recent performance, finishing strongly in fifth place behind Buccabay over six furlongs at Haydock Park 12 days ago. With Hayley Turner on board, Fresh stands a good chance of rewarding each-way backers, at the very least.
The stakes on Gold Cup day are particularly challenging, with notable contenders like favorite English Oak, Kings Time, Divine Libra, and Northern Express all worth considering.