UFC 311 Betting Preview - Islam Makhachev v Renato Moicano

Islam Makhachev and Merab Dvalishvili defend their titles in a packed fight card at the Intuit Arena in Los Angeles.

UFC 311 is set to be a significant event in the world of mixed martial arts, taking place on January 18, 2025, at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. With two championship bouts headlining the main card and several intriguing matchups below them, this event promises to deliver high-stakes action and potential career-defining moments for the fighters involved. Here’s a detailed preview of the main card fights, along with predictions for each bout.

Middleweight: Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder

Kicking off the main card is a compelling middleweight clash between fan-favorite Kevin Holland and former ONE Championship two-division titleholder Reinier de Ridder. Holland (26-12, 1 NC) is known for his dynamic striking and entertaining fight style. He has a knack for finishing fights and is always a crowd favorite due to his charismatic personality and unpredictable fighting approach.

Holland's recent performances have been a mixed bag; he is coming off a first-round TKO loss to Roman Dolidze after suffering a rib injury during the fight. This setback has raised questions about his durability and ability to withstand pressure from grapplers.

On the other hand, de Ridder (18-2) is making his second appearance in the UFC after a successful debut against Gerald Meerschaert, where he secured a submission victory in the third round. A seasoned grappler with extensive experience, de Ridder's strength lies in his ability to control opponents on the ground. He has an impressive record of submissions, with 12 of his 18 wins coming via this method.

This matchup presents a classic striker versus grappler dynamic. Holland will aim to keep the fight standing and use his reach advantage to land significant strikes. Conversely, de Ridder will likely look to close the distance quickly and take Holland down to implement his grappling game.

Given Holland's struggles against high-level grapplers in the past, de Ridder's size and wrestling prowess may prove too much for him. If de Ridder can successfully execute takedowns early in the fight, it could lead to a dominant performance.

Prediction: Reinier de Ridder by Decision

Heavyweight: Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac

Next up is an exciting heavyweight bout featuring Jailton Almeida against Serghei Spivac. Almeida (21-3) has quickly established himself as one of the top contenders in the heavyweight division with an impressive grappling skill set and finishing ability. He is coming off a first-round submission victory over Alexandr Romanov, showcasing his dominance on the ground.

Spivac (17-4) is known for his toughness and grappling skills but has faced elite competition throughout his career. He recently avenged an earlier loss by submitting Marcin Tybura in the first round, indicating that he remains a formidable opponent in the division.

This fight will likely revolve around Almeida's ability to impose his wrestling game early on. His relentless pressure and control time percentage (88.3%, which is historically high) give him an edge over Spivac. Almeida's average fight time of just over five minutes demonstrates his efficiency in finishing fights quickly.

While Spivac has shown resilience in previous bouts, Almeida's grappling acumen could overwhelm him if he cannot defend against takedown attempts. If Almeida can secure early takedowns and maintain control on the ground, he should be able to dictate the pace of the fight.

Prediction: Jailton Almeida by Submission, Round 2

Light Heavyweight: Jiří Procházka vs. Jamahal Hill

In a highly anticipated light heavyweight clash, former champions Jiří Procházka and Jamahal Hill collide in what promises to be an explosive encounter. Both fighters are looking to bounce back from knockout losses to current champion Alex Pereira and reestablish themselves as top contenders in this competitive division.

Procházka (30-5-1) is known for his unorthodox striking style and knockout power. After suffering back-to-back losses to Pereira, he aims to regain momentum with an impressive performance against Hill. Procházka’s aggressive approach often leads to thrilling exchanges but can also leave him vulnerable defensively.

Hill is known for his technical boxing skills and knockout power. He poses a significant threat on the feet with an impressive finishing rate.

This matchup has all the makings of a striking battle between two powerful fighters who prefer to keep it standing. Procházka’s unpredictability could create openings for him, but Hill’s precision and ability to counter effectively may give him an edge.

Both fighters have shown they can be finished; thus, this bout could end at any moment if one fighter lands cleanly. Given Procházka's experience against top-tier opponents and Hill's recent struggles with injuries, expect Procházka to find success early on.

Prediction: Jiří Procházka by KO/TKO, Round 3

Bantamweight Championship: Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

In the co-main event, bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili defends his title against undefeated challenger Umar Nurmagomedov. This fight pits Dvalishvili’s relentless pressure and wrestling against Nurmagomedov’s technical striking and grappling pedigree.

Dvalishvili (18-4) captured the title with a dominant decision victory over Sean O'Malley last September. Known as "The Machine," he employs relentless pressure coupled with exceptional wrestling skills that overwhelm opponents throughout five rounds.

Nurmagomedov (18-0), cousin of former champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, brings an impressive skill set into this fight. His striking accuracy of 63% makes him lethal against opponents while maintaining solid takedown defense at 72%.

This matchup could be decided by who controls the pace of the fight. Dvalishvili’s aggressive style may wear down opponents over time; however, Nurmagomedov’s technical proficiency could allow him to defend against takedowns while landing impactful strikes.

Expect both fighters to engage in high-paced exchanges where Dvalishvili will attempt multiple takedowns while Nurmagomedov counters effectively on the feet. This bout may go all five rounds as both fighters possess exceptional cardio.

Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov by Split Decision

Lightweight Championship: Islam Makhachev (c) vs. Renato Moicano

In an unexpected turn of events just one day before UFC 311, Islam Makhachev will now defend his lightweight title against Renato Moicano after Arman Tsarukyan withdrew due to injury. Makhachev (26-1) has been nearly unstoppable during his reign as champion, showcasing elite grappling skills combined with increasingly dangerous striking ability.

Moicano (20-5-1), stepping up on short notice from his scheduled bout against Beneil Dariush, faces an uphill battle against one of MMA's most well-rounded fighters today. While Moicano possesses solid Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills and striking fundamentals, taking on Makhachev with minimal preparation is no small task.

Makhachev is expected to dictate where this fight takes place using his wrestling prowess to control Moicano on the ground or set up strikes on the feet. Unless Moicano can catch Makhachev with a submission or land significant strikes early on, it could turn into another dominant performance for Makhachev.

The champion’s ability to adapt mid-fight has been showcased repeatedly throughout his career; expect him to implement a game plan that takes advantage of Moicano's weaknesses while minimizing risks associated with fighting someone on short notice.

Prediction: Islam Makhachev by TKO, Round 3

Conclusion

UFC 311 promises an action-packed night filled with high-stakes bouts featuring some of the best talent across multiple divisions. From Kevin Holland's striking clash with Reinier de Ridder to two thrilling title fights featuring Islam Makhachev defending against Renato Moicano and Merab Dvalishvili facing Umar Nurmagomedov for bantamweight gold, this event is set to deliver unforgettable moments for MMA fans worldwide.

As we kick off 2025's pay-per-view schedule with such an exciting card, each fighter will be looking to make their mark inside the octagon. The main-event changing so late might not have been ideal but it does add an element of unpredictability which is always welcome in MMA. With compelling matchups that have significant implications for their respective divisions, UFC 311 should set a high bar as it showcases both established stars and rising talents eager to prove themselves on one of MMA's biggest stages.

In summary:

- Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder: A classic striker vs. grappler matchup where de Ridder may find success through takedowns.

- Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac: Almeida’s grappling should dominate Spivac unless he can catch Almeida off guard.

- Jiří Procházka vs. Jamahal Hill: An explosive striking battle where Procházka’s experience may give him an edge.

- Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov: A high-paced contest that could go either way but favors Nurmagomedov’s striking.

- Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano: A dominant performance expected from Makhachev unless Moicano can pull off an upset.