Cesarewitch Tips 2026: The Experts Have Spoken, But Who's Backing the Winner?

3.40 Newmarket | Saturday 10 October 2026 | 2m2f | Live on ITV Racing

The Cesarewitch Handicap takes centre stage at Newmarket this afternoon, with one of the biggest betting races of the Flat season providing a fascinating puzzle for punters. Run over a stamina-sapping two miles and two furlongs, the historic contest regularly attracts a mixture of established stayers, improving handicappers and horses better known for their exploits over hurdles.

With a big field, plenty of each-way opportunities and several leading contenders attracting support, picking the winner is anything but straightforward. We've rounded up selections from 13 racing pundits and tipsters, including Ruby Walsh, Matt Chapman, Paul Kealy and Megan Nicholls, to see where the experts believe the value lies.

Dawn Rising Leads the Pundits' Picks

Ruby Walsh: Dawn Rising

Ruby Walsh believes Joseph O'Brien's Dawn Rising can reverse last year's form with Beylerbeyi, having finished runner-up in the 2025 renewal. With Ryan Moore booked and the horse attracting ante-post support, Walsh suspects this race has been the target for some time.

"It looks like he's spent all season working back to this race."

Matt Chapman: Dawn Rising

ITV Racing's Matt Chapman agrees with Walsh and believes Dawn Rising has been prepared specifically for another crack at the Cesarewitch. The eight-year-old runs from the same handicap mark of 97 as last year, despite some uninspiring recent performances over shorter distances.

"I suspect DAWN RISING has every chance of making up for his second-place finish last year."

Steve Mullington: Dawn Rising

Steve Mullington completes a trio of votes for Dawn Rising, pointing to the horse's proven stamina and previous performance in this race. Owned by JP McManus and trained by Joseph O'Brien, the gelding looks particularly well suited to the demands of this marathon handicap.

Mullington believes Dawn Rising will "come into his own in a contest of this nature."

Tom Lunn (talkSPORT): Dawn Rising

Tom Lunn also sides with Dawn Rising, although he acknowledges that the horse's price has shortened considerably. Having finished second last year from a higher handicap mark, the combination of Joseph O'Brien and Ryan Moore makes him difficult to oppose.

"With the way Joseph Patrick O'Brien is training this horse is a deserved favourite."

Beylerbeyi Backed to Defend His Crown

Andy Stephens (Racing TV): Beylerbeyi

Andy Stephens is sticking with last year's winner Beylerbeyi, having tipped him ante-post at 10/1. The Ian Williams-trained stayer has continued to perform well in top staying company, including a fifth in the Ebor and a runner-up finish in the Doncaster Cup.

Stephens highlighted his "fine fifth in the Ebor, when fastest through the final furlong."

Richard Hoiles: Beylerbeyi

ITV commentator Richard Hoiles also fancies Beylerbeyi to retain his title, despite the horse carrying a 10lb higher handicap rating than when successful 12 months ago. Hoiles believes the gelding's consistency, proven stamina and familiarity with jockey Billy Loughnane could prove decisive.

"It is only the more consistent profile of Beylerbeyi that sees him get the nod."

Mountain Road Attracts Each-Way Support

Megan Nicholls: Mountain Road (Win) & Dream On Baby (Each-Way)

Megan Nicholls has two selections for the Cesarewitch, with Mountain Road her main fancy at 10/1. Jim Goldie's improving stayer has enjoyed a productive campaign, and Nicholls believes the longer distance will play to his strengths.

"There's plenty to like about Mountain Road's chances."

Her each-way selection is Dream On Baby at 14/1, trained by Emmet Mullins. The mare has shown useful hurdles form and could be favourably handicapped on her Flat debut in this company.

"I can see Dream On Baby becoming a market mover as an each-way bet."

Katie Midwinter: Mountain Road (Each-Way) & Tactician (Each-Way)

Katie Midwinter also likes Mountain Road, highlighting his consistency since returning from a lengthy absence. The seven-year-old has finished in the first three on four of his six starts this season and could be finishing strongly when others have cried enough.

Midwinter describes him as a "likeable performer over the staying trip."

She also recommends Tactician at 33/1, believing the lightly raced five-year-old could have more improvement to come after returning from a 700-day absence.

"There may be more to come from the gelding."

Paul Kealy Fancies Sea Lantern

Paul Kealy (Racing Post): Sea Lantern

Paul Kealy has been keen on Sea Lantern for some time and believes Brian Ellison's progressive stayer has the potential to improve considerably over this longer distance.

The horse impressed when winning over a mile and a half last time and is officially 4lb well in following that performance. Kealy also highlights his staying pedigree, which suggests the Cesarewitch trip could bring further improvement.

"Sea Lantern still looked like he was running over a trip way too short last time."

The Outsiders: High Fibre, Naval Tribute, Kirchner and Shrimp Shady

Alan Firkins (Betfred Insights): High Fibre (18/1)

Alan Firkins is looking for each-way value with High Fibre, trained locally by James Owen. The seven-year-old has already won over two miles at Newmarket and finished a staying-on second at York last time.

Firkins particularly likes the booking of Silvestre De Sousa and believes the gelding could outrun his odds.

"I think there will be far worse each-way prospects lining up this afternoon."

Rory Delargy: Naval Tribute

Rory Delargy is taking a more adventurous approach with Naval Tribute, another James Owen runner. The gelding has won four times since joining the trainer, and Delargy believes his stamina, favourable draw and progressive profile make him overpriced.

"NAVAL TRIBUTE is an enormous price, and he's my best bet on Saturday."

Nic Doggett: Kirchner

Nic Doggett believes Kirchner can improve on his recent sixth at York, where he was ridden conservatively and never fully tested. The form of that race has subsequently worked out well, and the horse competes from the same handicap mark.

Doggett describes him as "a leading contender here from the same mark."

Dave (Envision): Shrimp Shady

Dave's selection is Shrimp Shady, a consistent performer who arrives following a recent victory. Although further improvement may be limited, his reliability makes him an interesting alternative to some of the more speculative contenders.

"He is a rock-solid performer."

Cesarewitch 2026: All the Pundits' Selections

Dawn Rising Ruby Walsh, Matt Chapman, Steve Mullington, Tom Lunn

Dawn Rising

15:40 Newmarket

Best Odds11/2

Beylerbeyi Andy Stephens, Richard Hoiles

Beylerbeyi

15:40 Newmarket

Best Odds6/1

Mountain Road Megan Nicholls (win), Katie Midwinter (each-way)

Mountain Road

15:40 Newmarket

Best Odds12/1

Dream On Baby Megan Nicholls (each-way)

Dream On Baby

15:40 Newmarket

Best Odds16/1

Tactician Katie Midwinter (each-way)

Tactician

15:40 Newmarket

Best Odds50/1

Sea Lantern Paul Kealy

Sea Lantern

15:40 Newmarket

Best Odds6/1

High Fibre Alan Firkins (each-way)

High Fibre

15:40 Newmarket

Best Odds22/1

Naval Tribute Rory Delargy

Naval Tribute

15:40 Newmarket

Best Odds12/1

Kirchner Nic Doggett

Kirchner

15:40 Newmarket

Best Odds12/1

Shrimp Shady Dave (Envision)

Shrimp Shady

15:40 Newmarket

Best Odds40/1

Who Is the Pundits' Favourite?

Dawn Rising is the clear favourite among our racing experts, collecting four selections from Ruby Walsh, Matt Chapman, Steve Mullington and Tom Lunn. His second-place finish last year, favourable handicap mark and Ryan Moore booking provide a convincing case.

Defending champion Beylerbeyi is next with two selections, while Mountain Road also attracts support from two pundits, including an each-way recommendation from Katie Midwinter.

However, the Cesarewitch has a habit of making fools of even the shrewdest judges. With more than two miles to travel and a large field to negotiate, there is every chance an outsider could spoil the party.

At betting.bet, you can explore the full Cesarewitch racecard, compare bookmakers' odds and find more horse racing tips from leading pundits and tipsters for today's ITV Racing coverage.

*Odds quoted are those supplied with the original selections and may have changed. Please check current prices and each-way terms before betting. 18+. Gamble responsibly.*