Weekend of Upsets: Steveson, Arsenal and the Favourites Turned Over

It has been a painful weekend for favourite backers, with shocks across UFC, football, horse racing and college football. None came bigger than the extraordinary defeat of Gable Steveson, who was priced as though losing was barely a possibility before Sean Sharaf knocked him out in 12 seconds, but Arsenal's perfect Premier League start also came crashing to an end and one of Britain's most exciting unbeaten two year olds lost his record at Newbury.

Here are four of the biggest sporting upsets of the weekend.

SEAN SHARAF BEATS GABLE STEVESON AT UFC 331

• Sharaf: 21/2
• Steveson: 1/25
• Shock Rating: ★★★★★

This wasn't merely the biggest shock of the weekend. It was one of those results that makes you wonder why anyone ever backs a 1/25 shot.

Gable Steveson entered UFC 331 with an extraordinary reputation. The Olympic freestyle wrestling gold medallist was unbeaten in professional MMA, had made an impressive start to his UFC career and was already being discussed as a potential future heavyweight title contender.

The bookmakers certainly weren't expecting Sean Sharaf to stop that progress. BetMGM had Steveson at 1/25 in UK fractional odds, while Sharaf could be backed at 21/2. Other firms went even bigger about the underdog.

All those calculations became irrelevant after 12 seconds.

Sharaf landed a huge left hook that sent Steveson crashing to the canvas and followed up before the contest was stopped. It was Steveson's first professional MMA defeat and the third fastest heavyweight knockout in UFC history. Even more remarkably, Sharaf had entered the contest having lost both of his previous UFC appearances by knockout.

There are occasions when a massive favourite loses because something goes wrong over several rounds. There was no complicated explanation needed here. Sharaf found Steveson's chin almost immediately and one of the shortest priced favourites you are likely to see in UFC was beaten before the fight had really started.

For anyone who actually backed Sharaf at double figure odds, congratulations. You saw something virtually nobody else did.

BRIGHTON THREE NIL ARSENAL IN THE PREMIER LEAGUE

• Brighton: 17/4
• Arsenal: 13/17
• Shock Rating: ★★★★☆

Arsenal losing away at Brighton isn't in the same betting universe as a 1/25 UFC favourite getting knocked out, but the circumstances and manner of the defeat made this comfortably the biggest Premier League shock of the weekend.

The defending champions arrived on the south coast having won their opening four Premier League matches, conceding only once in the process. They were odds on favourites to make it five from five, while Brighton were available at 17/4 before kick off.

Brighton didn't scrape a fortunate 1 0 victory either. They hammered Arsenal 3 0.

Pascal Gross and Charalampos Kostoulas scored before half time before Chema Andres added a third after the break, ending Arsenal's perfect start in emphatic fashion. It was also the first time Arsenal had conceded three goals in a match since December 2023.

Mikel Arteta didn't have many complaints afterwards and admitted Brighton had been the better side. Arsenal were second best technically, lost too many duels and looked nothing like the team that had started its title defence with four consecutive victories.

A Brighton victory was always within the realms of possibility, which is why this doesn't get five stars, but 3 0 against the reigning champions was certainly not in the script.

KENTUCKY 31 TEXAS A&M 21 IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL

• Kentucky: 25/4
• Texas A&M: 2/17
• Shock Rating: ★★★★☆

Anyone looking for another properly short favourite getting turned over only had to head to College Station, where No. 9 Texas A&M were expected to make relatively light work of Kentucky.

The betting market made the scale of the surprise clear. Texas A&M were around 2/17, while Kentucky were available at 25/4. The Aggies were also 17 point favourites by kick off.

Kentucky didn't just hang around and steal it at the end either. The Wildcats won 31 21 after taking control during a disastrous second half for Texas A&M, handing the ninth ranked Aggies their first defeat of the season.

Texas A&M head coach Mike Elko was particularly unimpressed afterwards, saying there were "no positives" he could take from the performance. That probably wasn't far away from the assessment of anyone who had included a 2/17 favourite in their weekend bets either.

The ranking beside Texas A&M's name makes the result stand out, but the betting price makes it a genuine upset. A 25/4 outsider going away and beating a 2/17 favourite by ten points deserves its place on the list.

NABATI BEATS ARAPAHO GOLD IN THE MILL REEF STAKES

• Nabati: 7/4
• Arapaho Gold: 5/4
• Shock Rating: ★★★☆☆

This wasn't a huge betting upset in terms of price, but it was one of the most notable racing defeats of the weekend because of the reputation Arapaho Gold had built.

Michael Dods' colt arrived at Newbury unbeaten in four starts and with victory in the Gimcrack at York already on his record. He was sent off the 5/4 favourite for the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes and was attempting to maintain his perfect career record.

Instead, it was Charlie Appleby's Nabati who came out on top.

The finish was desperately tight. Nabati, sent off at 7/4, beat Jolivette by a short head, with Arapaho Gold only another neck away in third. Less than half a length therefore separated the first three, but it was enough to bring Arapaho Gold's unbeaten run to an end.

This gets three stars rather than four or five because Nabati was hardly an unconsidered outsider. At 7/4 he was strongly fancied himself, and the market clearly regarded the Mill Reef as a competitive race despite Arapaho Gold heading the betting.

The shock was therefore more about who was beaten than who won. Arapaho Gold had looked like one of the leading British juveniles and arrived with a perfect four from four record. Newbury provided the first evidence that he isn't unbeatable.

THE BIGGEST SHOCK?

There isn't much competition.

Arsenal losing 3 0 after beginning their title defence with four straight victories was a major Premier League surprise, while Kentucky's victory over a Texas A&M side trading at around 2/17 was a serious upset in its own right. Arapaho Gold losing his unbeaten record added another beaten favourite to a weekend that hadn't been particularly kind to short price backers.

But nothing comes remotely close to what happened at UFC 331.

Steveson was around 1/25. Sharaf had lost his previous two UFC fights. The Olympic champion was being talked about as a future heavyweight contender and the betting market effectively treated his victory as a formality.

Twelve seconds later, Sharaf had knocked him out.

If there was ever a weekend to remind bettors why 1/25 still isn't the same thing as a certainty, this was probably it.