Stephen Welch

Wetherby

• 13:10

  Kahavari

  KAHAVARI could be a useful handicap chaser in the making, and I'm keen to see whether he can pick up where he left off at Sandown in April. Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero's gelding had shown ability over hurdles without managing to build on his winning debut in France, but fences appeared to bring out a different side to him last season. His final appearance was particularly encouraging, as he was patiently ridden before travelling strongly into contention and taking over approaching the last to land a valuable handicap. He did wander right on the run in, so there are still a few rough edges to iron out, but that victory suggested he had more in hand than the margin indicated. The absence is a consideration, although connections have had all summer to prepare him. With his confidence boosted by that Sandown success and further improvement possible over fences, Kahavari looks capable of making a winning return.

  5/1
• 13:45

  La Conquiere

  LA CONQUIERE looks worth another chance back against her own sex, and I reckon her best novice form gives her a serious chance of making an impact at Wetherby. She looked a mare going places when winning a Listed novice hurdle last November, but things didn't quite work out for her at the spring festivals. Those defeats were disappointing, although she was competing in much stronger company and it would be harsh to judge her solely on those performances. Today's assignment looks more manageable and there is every reason to believe she can return to the level she showed earlier in her career. Kateira won this race last season and commands respect, but that renewal rather fell into her lap when her only opponent failed to perform. La Conquiere has more to offer than her recent form figures suggest, and this looks a sensible opportunity to get her back on track.

  6/4
• 14:18

  Take No Chances

  TAKE NO CHANCES came within a neck of winning this race twelve months ago, and I fancy Dan Skelton's mare to go one better now the weights have shifted in her favour. She was narrowly denied by Strong Leader last season, but the pair meet again with Take No Chances receiving an additional 3lb. That might not sound much, but when two horses have already been separated by such a small margin, every pound matters. She's a tough, dependable mare who has won five times over hurdles, including at Grade 2 level, and has also landed a Listed contest at this track. There are no concerns about her handling Wetherby or competing against high class opposition. The Skelton yard has started the season strongly, which adds to the confidence. Strong Leader remains the obvious danger, but Take No Chances has already proved she can match him and now has the weights in her favour. It could be another close finish, but this time I reckon she'll be the one with her nose in front.

  5/4
• 14:55

  The Real Whacker

  THE REAL WHACKER has given his supporters a few headaches over the past couple of seasons, but there's still a very good horse in there somewhere, and his recent Perth victory suggests he hasn't forgotten how to win. Patrick Neville's ten year old was once among the leading staying novice chasers, winning the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham, but injuries and interrupted campaigns have prevented him from fulfilling that early promise. His latest success at Perth was a welcome return to form. He won from a handicap mark of 149 and, while that doesn't automatically make him a Charlie Hall winner, it should have done his confidence the world of good. He's a particularly good jumper when in the right frame of mind, and the three mile trip holds no fears. Brian Hughes takes the ride, while a recent winning run gives him a fitness advantage over several rivals returning from lengthy breaks. Pic D'Orhy is the obvious danger and sets a higher standard, but The Real Whacker has plenty of back class and could be dangerous if the Perth victory has rekindled his enthusiasm. I wouldn't be rushing to remortgage the house, but in a race where most have something to prove, he's the one I'm prepared to chance.

  5/1
• 15:30

  Race To Base

  RACE TO BASE looks the most interesting runner in Wetherby's concluding handicap hurdle, and I reckon there's a fair chance we haven't seen the best of him yet. His latest effort at Sandown was a solid one, suggesting he has the ability to win a race of this nature if he has made the expected progress during the summer. He remains relatively unexposed and could have considerably more improvement to come. This is only a four runner contest, but there are questions surrounding his opponents. Filibustering has shown ability without convincing that he's still progressing, while Klitschko and Banderas have their own limitations to overcome. The key is whether Race To Base has strengthened up during his break. If he has, he could be a much better horse than the one we saw last season. There's always a little guesswork involved with horses returning from a summer away, but this looks a sensible starting point. Race To Base has the potential to develop beyond this grade and gets my vote to make a winning return.

  11/8

Ascot

• 13:25

  Dance And Glance

  DANCE AND GLANCE looks the sort who could take to chasing straight away, and I wouldn't be surprised if Anthony Honeyball has another smart prospect on his hands. There was plenty to like about his hurdling campaign, particularly his victory in the Pertemps Final at Haydock and his subsequent third in the Swinton Hurdle. He was unfortunate not to finish closer in the latter, coming from well off the pace and encountering traffic when trying to make his challenge. That performance suggested he had more ability than the result showed, and today's longer trip could suit him nicely. Jet To Vegas has the advantage of chasing experience, which counts for plenty, but Dance And Glance brings useful hurdle form into this small field. With Honeyball's yard going well and the larger obstacles potentially bringing further improvement, he looks a fascinating newcomer to fences.

  3/1
• 14:00

  Martator

  MARTATOR returns to one of his favourite hunting grounds and, given his record over this course and distance, I reckon Venetia Williams' gelding could be a real handful. He's won three times over Ascot's two mile chase course, including an 11 length demolition job in November 2024 from a mark of 140. That was one of those performances where the handicapper could have added a few more pounds and still struggled to stop him. His finest hour came at Cheltenham in March when first time blinkers helped him land the Grand Annual, showing plenty of determination when it mattered. The headgear clearly made a difference that day, and returning to Ascot should be another positive. He has already shown he can jump and travel around this demanding circuit better than most. There are dangers in a competitive handicap, but Martator has the sort of course record that makes him impossible to dismiss. If he returns in the same mood as Cheltenham, he could be very difficult to contain.

  9/1
• 14:33

  Transmission

  TRANSMISSION is one of those horses who can make you question your judgement one week and look like a world beater the next, but there's enough in his best form to fancy him at Ascot. He struggled for consistency last season until connections reached for a visor in the Edinburgh National at Musselburgh. The transformation was remarkable, as he travelled strongly before powering clear to win by 12 lengths. It was the sort of performance that made you wonder where he'd been hiding that ability. His recent outing over hurdles looked very much like a preparation for this return to chasing, and he's now just 4lb above that Musselburgh winning mark. The first time blinkers are another interesting move. They could help him concentrate and reproduce the enthusiasm he showed when fitted with the visor. There are more reliable runners in this field, but Transmission has already demonstrated what he can do when everything clicks. If the new headgear has the desired effect, he could make his presence felt in this valuable three mile handicap.

  14/1
• 15:43

  Gibbs IslandE/W

  GIBBS ISLAND was disappointing on his seasonal return at Chepstow, but I'm not prepared to give up on Tom Lacey's five year old just yet, particularly at a decent each way price. He made rapid progress last season, winning three times before running a respectable seventh of 23 in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. That was a cracking effort in a fiercely competitive handicap, especially considering he was sent off at 50/1. The form has worked out nicely too, with winner Wilful subsequently returning to winning ways, and Gibbs Island has already shown he can compete in stronger races than an ordinary handicap. His Chepstow reappearance was poor, admittedly, but he's entitled to be sharper for that outing and the handicapper has left him on 131, which is actually 1lb below his last winning mark. Stan Sheppard retains the ride and there should still be more to come from a horse who has relatively few miles on the clock. He's going to need to leave that latest effort well behind, but there's enough in his previous form to think he can bounce back. At a double figure price, Gibbs Island looks worth another chance to remind everyone why he was such a progressive hurdler last season.

  14/1

Down Royal

• 15:15

  Affordale Fury

  AFFORDALE FURY looks capable of making a bold bid from the front in the Champion Chase at Down Royal, provided Noel Meade has him back to his best after a lengthy absence. The eight year old developed into a high class staying chaser last season, winning twice before things went wrong in the Irish Gold Cup, where he was pulled up. That was a disappointing way to end his campaign, but his earlier form is strong enough to give him a serious chance here. What interests me most is the possibility of him getting his own way in front. He's a strong stayer who likes to get into a rhythm, and if Sam Ewing can have him jumping fluently without being pestered for the lead, he could make life uncomfortable for some very talented rivals. Heart Wood and Banbridge are obvious threats, while Haiti Couleurs brings outstanding staying form into the race, so there's no pretending this is an easy assignment. The long absence and his well being are genuine questions, but Affordale Fury has the ability to compete at this level. If he's ready to roll, he could take some catching.

  11/2