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Best Odds Guaranteed Betting Sites: What BOG Is Really Worth
Best Odds Guaranteed paid out more on 44% of winners in our one day test, adding an average of £20.20 to every £10 winning bet it improved. Morning prices were recorded with timestamped trace times on 30 October 2026.
4 NOVEMBER 2026
Head Sports Analyst
About 15 min listen, read by a realistic UK voice.
Every bookmaker advertises Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) on horse racing, and most punters know roughly what it means. Far fewer know how often it actually kicks in, or how much it is worth over a day's racing. So we measured it.
We recorded Betfred's racecard prices with timestamped trace times between 8:31am and 8:41am for every UK and Irish race that day. That was 45 races across Newmarket, Uttoxeter, Wetherby, Down Royal, Newcastle and Dundalk. After racing we checked every one of the 437 horses that ran against its official starting price (SP).
Key findings
| What we measured | Result |
|---|---|
| Winners where BOG paid more than the morning price | 20 of 45 (44.4%) |
| Average extra per BOG boosted winner (£10 win bet) | £20.20 |
| Median extra per BOG boosted winner | £5.00 |
| Average extra across every winner | £8.98 |
| Total extra, £10 win on every winner | £403.98 |
| Uplift on total winning returns | +14.1% |
| Runners that drifted (better odds had they won) | 195 of 437 (44.6%) |
| Extra on each way place parts (£10 each way) | £423.54 |
| Biggest single uplift | £190 (Lost Features, 14/1 to 33/1) |
The short version: taking a morning price with BOG never cost a punter anything, and on nearly half of winners it paid more. The size of that extra varies hugely, from 44p on an odds on winner to £190 on a 33/1 shock.
What Best Odds Guaranteed is
Best Odds Guaranteed means that if you take a price on a horse and it wins, the bookmaker pays you at the bigger of two prices: the one you took, or the starting price.
The starting price is the official price a horse is at when the race begins. It is set by the on course market, so it is the same at every bookmaker. Prices move all day as money comes in. A horse that attracts little support drifts out to longer odds. A horse that is heavily backed shortens.
Without BOG, an early bet is a gamble on which way the price goes. Take 4/1 in the morning, watch it drift to 6/1, and you have the worse price. With BOG, the bookmaker settles at 6/1 anyway. If the horse shortens to 3/1 instead, you keep your 4/1. Either way, you get the better of the two.
A worked example from the day
Sugar Baby was 16/1 on Betfred's racecard at 8:38am for the 19:15 at Newcastle. By the off it had drifted to 22/1, and it won.
| Price | Return on £10 win | |
|---|---|---|
| Morning price, no BOG | 16/1 | £170 |
| Starting price | 22/1 | £230 |
| With BOG | 22/1 | £230 |
BOG added £60 to that one bet without the punter doing anything.
The usual terms
BOG is not unlimited. Betfred's terms, like most bookmakers', typically limit it to:
- UK and Irish horse racing
- bets placed after BOG goes live on race day, which varies by bookmaker
- a maximum extra payout per customer per day
- customers whose accounts have not been restricted
Always check the current terms on the bookmaker's site before relying on it. Every race in our test showed Betfred's BOG banner on the racecard.
How we ran the test
We recorded one bookmaker's morning prices for a full day and settled every runner three ways: at the morning price, at SP, and with BOG.
- Morning prices. Between 8:31am and 8:41am we recorded every Betfred racecard for the test day's 45 UK and Irish races. Each timestamped trace records the time and the BOG banner.
- Results. After racing we took every runner's finishing position, SP and non runner status from the official results for the day.
- Who counts. Horses already withdrawn at 8:30am, and Irish reserves that never got a run, were left out. That leaves the 437 horses that actually started.
- Win bets. For each winner, the BOG extra is £10 × (SP fractional odds minus morning fractional odds) when the SP was bigger, and zero otherwise.
- Each way bets. For placed horses, we applied each race's each way terms to the place part of a £10 each way bet. Fields that shrank to 5 to 7 runners drop to 1/4 odds two places, and below 5 runners each way becomes win only.
| Meeting | Races | Runners | Surface | Timestamped trace time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newmarket | 9 | 96 | Turf, Flat | 8:31am to 8:32am |
| Uttoxeter | 7 | 64 | Turf,jumps | 8:35am |
| Down Royal | 7 | 64 | Turf,jumps | 8:36am to 8:37am |
| Wetherby | 6 | 36 | Turf,jumps | 8:38am |
| Newcastle | 9 | 91 | All weather | 8:38am to 8:39am |
| Dundalk | 7 | 86 | All weather | 8:40am to 8:41am |
| Total | 45 | 437 |
Rule 4 deductions were not applied. On the day they only affected Newmarket 12:40 and Newcastle 16:45, and neither winner was a BOG case, so the headline figures are unchanged.
The results
Of the 45 winners, 20 went off at a bigger price than Betfred's morning odds, so BOG paid more on 44.4% of them.
What happened to the winners' prices
| Winner's price move | Winners | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Drifted, so BOG paid the bigger SP | 20 | 44.4% |
| Shortened, so the morning price was better | 22 | 48.9% |
| No change | 3 | 6.7% |
The 22 winners that shortened matter as much as the 20 that drifted. Those punters got a better price than SP simply by betting early. BOG made no difference to them, but taking the morning price did. The two together explain why backing early with BOG is so hard to beat: you keep the early price when it is better, and get SP when that is better.
How much extra BOG paid
On a £10 win bet, BOG added an average of £20.20 to each of the 20 winners it improved, and £403.98 in total.
That average is lifted by a few big drifters. The median extra was £5.00, meaning half the BOG boosts were worth a fiver or less. Take out the single biggest, Lost Features at Down Royal, and the average falls to £11.26 across the other 19.
Spread across all 45 winners, including those BOG did not touch, the extra works out at £8.98 per winner. On odds terms, the BOG winners' prices were 35% bigger on average than their morning prices.
Every bet settled three ways
| Bet | Morning price only | With BOG | SP only |
|---|---|---|---|
| £10 win on every winner (total returned) | £2,856.88 | £3,260.86 | £2,718.32 |
| £1 win on all 437 runners (profit/loss) | −£151.31 | −£110.91 | −£165.17 |
| £1 win on the 8:30am favourite in each race (profit/loss) | +£1.69 | +£7.59 | +£5.00 |
Three things stand out:
- BOG lifted winning returns by 14.1% over morning prices alone, and by 20% over SP.
- Backing everything still lost, as it always will against a bookmaker's margin. But BOG cut that loss by more than a quarter, from £151 to £111 on 437 £1 bets.
- The morning favourite was a winning bet on the day. It won 20 of 45 races. With BOG it returned +£7.59 to a £1 level stake, against +£5.00 at SP.
Every runner, not just the winners
BOG only pays out on winners, but it applies to any horse you back. So the more useful question for a punter is: how often would my horse have gone off bigger if it had won?
The answer on the day was 44.6%. Of the 437 runners, 195 drifted, 189 shortened and 53 went off at their morning price.
Drifters moved further than shorteners. The average drifter's odds lengthened by 57%, while the average shortener came in by 32%.
Morning prices were better value before BOG added anything
Adding up the implied chances of every horse that ran gives each race's book percentage, the bookmaker's built in margin. Betfred's morning prices averaged a 115.2% book across the 45 races. At SP the same races averaged 119.7%.
In other words, the morning prices offered a smaller margin than SP before BOG was even applied. BOG then removed the risk of taking them.
Each way: the hidden half of BOG
BOG applies to the place part of an each way bet too, and on our day it was worth more there than on the win part: £423.54 against £403.98.
An each way bet is two bets: one to win, and one to place at a fraction of the odds, usually 1/4 or 1/5. If your horse drifts and finishes in the places, BOG pays that place part at the bigger SP as well.
Of the 126 horses that finished in the paid places, 47 had drifted from their morning price. That includes 18 winners and 29 horses that ran 2nd, 3rd or 4th. On a £10 each way bet:
- the place parts of those 47 bets earned £423.54 more than the morning price would have paid
- £341.65 of that came from horses that did not win, where a win only bet would have lost
- add the win parts and BOG added £827.52 in total across every placed horse
Place parts gain so much because the biggest drifts happen at long odds, and long odds horses that place rather than win are common.
| Horse | Race | Morning | SP | Finished | Place part extra (£10 e/w) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phantom Of Delight | Uttoxeter 13:37 | 50/1 | 100/1 | 2nd | £100.00 |
| Lost Features | Down Royal 13:30 | 14/1 | 33/1 | 1st | £38.00 |
| What A Girl Wants | Newmarket 13:45 | 33/1 | 50/1 | 3rd | £34.00 |
| St Marys Wantage | Uttoxeter 13:37 | 25/1 | 40/1 | 3rd | £30.00 |
| Michaela's Boy | Newcastle 18:15 | 18/1 | 28/1 | 3rd | £20.00 |
| Kaproyale | Uttoxeter 14:45 | 16/1 | 25/1 | 3rd | £18.00 |
Phantom Of Delight shows the point well. It finished second at 100/1 in a maiden hurdle. Backed each way at the morning 50/1, BOG doubled the place return from £110 to £210 on a £10 place stake.
Where BOG pays most
Prices drifted most often in big fields and in races run late in the day, but most of the money came from horses priced 9/1 to 20/1.
By morning price
| Morning price | Runners | Drifted | Winners | BOG boosted winners | BOG extra (£10 win) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds on | 9 | 66.7% | 6 | 4 | £8.70 |
| Evens to 3/1 | 38 | 50.0% | 16 | 9 | £50.20 |
| 7/2 to 8/1 | 117 | 41.9% | 12 | 4 | £45.00 |
| 9/1 to 20/1 | 149 | 45.0% | 11 | 3 | £300.00 |
| 22/1 and bigger | 124 | 43.5% | 0 | 0 | £0.00 |
Short priced favourites drifted most often. Four of the six odds on winners went off bigger than their morning price, but the gains were pennies: Taranis Dubh moving from 2/5 to 4/9 was worth 44p on a £10 bet.
The real value sat in the 9/1 to 20/1 band. Only three BOG winners came from it, yet they produced £300 of the day's £404 total: Lost Features (14/1 to 33/1), Sugar Baby (16/1 to 22/1) and Las Canals (11/1 to 16/1).
By field size
| Runners in the race | Runners | Drifted | Winners | BOG boosted winners | BOG extra |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 to 8 | 98 | 38.8% | 17 | 8 | £47.90 |
| 9 to 11 | 129 | 41.1% | 13 | 3 | £81.20 |
| 12 to 14 | 160 | 49.4% | 12 | 7 | £34.80 |
| 15 or more | 50 | 50.0% | 3 | 2 | £240.00 |
Half of all runners drifted in fields of 12 or more, against 39% in fields of eight or fewer. Big handicaps have more horses with little support, and more room for the market to settle on a few.
By time between our timestamped trace and the off
| Hours to the off | Runners | Drifted | Winners | BOG boosted winners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 to 5 hours | 79 | 41.8% | 9 | 4 |
| 5 to 8 hours | 195 | 42.6% | 21 | 8 |
| 8 to 10 hours | 70 | 47.1% | 7 | 3 |
| 10 to 12 hours | 93 | 49.5% | 8 | 5 |
The longer a price had to move, the more likely it was to drift. The evening all weather races at Newcastle and Dundalk, 10 to 12 hours after the timestamped traces, drifted half the time.
By race type
| Race type | Runners | Drifted | Shortened | Winners | BOG boosted winners |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat | 273 | 46.9% | 39.9% | 25 | 10 |
| Hurdle | 110 | 42.7% | 46.4% | 12 | 7 |
| NH Flat (bumper) | 16 | 56.2% | 37.5% | 2 | 1 |
| Chase | 38 | 28.9% | 60.5% | 6 | 2 |
Chases stand out: six in ten chasers shortened. The six chases were small fields, where support for one or two horses squeezes everything else. Non runners have the same effect. Down Royal lost 21 horses to a ground change, and across its whole card two thirds of runners shortened.
By course
| Course | Runners | Drifted | Winners | BOG boosted winners | BOG extra (£10 win) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uttoxeter | 64 | 56.2% | 7 | 5 | £61.00 |
| Dundalk | 86 | 51.2% | 7 | 4 | £27.50 |
| Newmarket | 96 | 47.9% | 9 | 2 | £5.25 |
| Newcastle | 91 | 41.8% | 9 | 4 | £82.50 |
| Wetherby | 36 | 38.9% | 6 | 3 | £25.23 |
| Down Royal | 64 | 26.6% | 7 | 2 | £202.50 |
Down Royal is the clearest example of why one day's figures need care. It had the fewest drifters of any course, yet the biggest BOG payout, all thanks to one horse.
The biggest wins, and the other side
One horse earned almost half of the day's BOG extra on its own. Lost Features was 14/1 on Betfred's card at 8:36am, went off 33/1 for the Down Royal 13:30 handicap hurdle, and won.
Every BOG boosted winner
| Winner | Race | Morning | SP | BOG extra (£10 win) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost Features | Down Royal 13:30 | 14/1 | 33/1 | £190.00 |
| Sugar Baby | Newcastle 19:15 | 16/1 | 22/1 | £60.00 |
| Las Canals | Uttoxeter 14:10 | 11/1 | 16/1 | £50.00 |
| Tactical Blitz | Newcastle 17:45 | 7/1 | 9/1 | £20.00 |
| Crebilly | Wetherby 15:35 | 11/2 | 7/1 | £15.00 |
| Ash Hobbs | Down Royal 14:00 | 11/4 | 4/1 | £12.50 |
| Go Out | Dundalk 20:00 | 2/1 | 3/1 | £10.00 |
| Charles Darnay | Wetherby 15:00 | 2/1 | 11/4 | £7.50 |
| Wearing Stars | Dundalk 19:00 | 6/4 | 9/4 | £7.50 |
| Jordan Breeze | Dundalk 18:00 | 2/1 | 5/2 | £5.00 |
| Son Of Beauty | Dundalk 19:30 | 13/2 | 7/1 | £5.00 |
| Hello Charlie | Uttoxeter 15:55 | 7/2 | 4/1 | £5.00 |
| Merry Wood | Uttoxeter 13:37 | 4/6 | Evens | £3.33 |
| Siena Storm | Newmarket 13:45 | 11/10 | 11/8 | £2.75 |
| Nate Of Spades | Wetherby 13:50 | 8/11 | Evens | £2.73 |
| Dove Tale | Newmarket 11:35 | 7/4 | 2/1 | £2.50 |
| Hold The Serve | Uttoxeter 12:35 | 4/9 | 4/6 | £2.22 |
| Elyam | Newcastle 18:15 | 7/4 | 15/8 | £1.25 |
| Cavallo Pazzo | Newcastle 20:20 | 2/1 | 85/40 | £1.25 |
| Taranis Dubh | Uttoxeter 13:07 | 2/5 | 4/9 | £0.44 |
The list has a long tail. Eleven of the 20 boosts were worth £5 or less, and the top three made up £300.
When the morning price was the better bet
22 winners shortened between the morning and the off, so their backers beat SP by betting early. The biggest gaps:
| Winner | Race | Morning | SP | Extra over SP (£10 win) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camino Del Ray | Newcastle 18:45 | 14/1 | 11/2 | £85.00 |
| Heads Up | Down Royal 14:35 | 18/1 | 10/1 | £80.00 |
| Covet | Newmarket 12:40 | 10/1 | 4/1 | £60.00 |
| Nevershedatear | Uttoxeter 14:45 | 11/1 | 6/1 | £50.00 |
| Venetian Storm | Newmarket 15:30 | 17/2 | 7/2 | £50.00 |
| Devil's Brigade | Newmarket 14:55 | 12/1 | 15/2 | £45.00 |
| Petula | Newcastle 16:45 | 13/2 | 7/2 | £30.00 |
| Claude | Down Royal 15:10 | 15/2 | 9/2 | £30.00 |
| Matin Midi Et Soir | Down Royal 15:45 | 2/1 | 1/2 | £15.00 |
These are not BOG gains, but they show the other half of the case for betting early. All nine of these winners' odds fell by more than a third. Wait until the off and you get the shorter SP.
How to get the most from BOG
Bet early, with a bookmaker that offers BOG, and BOG makes early betting close to risk free on price. These are the practical lessons from the day.
1. Take the morning price once you have made your selection. You keep it if the horse shortens, and get SP if it drifts. On our day that combination beat SP only betting on returns from winners by 20%.
2. Check BOG is live before you bet. Many bookmakers only switch it on from a set time on race day. A bet placed before then may be settled at the price taken, even if SP is bigger.
3. Use it most in big handicaps. Half of runners drifted in fields of 12 or more. Those races also produce the long priced winners where a drift is worth real money.
4. Don't expect much from odds on shots. They drifted often, but moving from 2/5 to 4/9 is worth pennies.
5. Bet each way on bigger prices. Long shots that drift and place earned more from BOG on our day than winners did. A place part paid at a bigger SP is easy money to miss.
6. Bet early on evening cards. Races 10 to 12 hours after our timestamped traces drifted 50% of the time, the highest of any window.
7. Watch for non runners. When horses come out, the rest of the field usually shortens. A morning price taken before that happens is often the best you will see, and Rule 4 deductions still apply to it.
8. Know the limits. Check each bookmaker's maximum BOG payout and whether your account still qualifies. Accounts that win regularly can lose BOG.
What this test can and can't tell you
This is one day of racing at one bookmaker, so treat the exact figures as an example, not a long run average.
- One horse moves the totals. Lost Features alone accounts for 47% of the day's BOG win extra. A different day without a 33/1 drifting winner would show a much smaller total.
- One bookmaker, one time. We took Betfred's prices at around 8:30am. Other bookmakers' morning prices differ, and prices taken later in the day would drift less.
- Rule 4 is left out. Deductions for late non runners reduce both the morning price and SP. They touched two races on the day and changed none of the headline figures.
- Maximum payouts and account limits are not modelled. None of the day's BOG gains on a £10 bet came close to a typical cap.
- Late October racing is a mix of Flat, jumps and all weather. A day of big summer handicaps, or a Festival card, could look very different.
The percentages are the most transferable part. About 44% of winners and 45% of all runners drifting is a reasonable working figure for a normal day.
We plan to repeat the test over more days and more bookmakers, and will update this page as the sample grows.
Frequently asked questions
How often does Best Odds Guaranteed pay out?
On our test day, 20 of 45 winners (44%) went off at a bigger SP than their morning price, so BOG paid more on those. Across all 437 runners, 45% drifted.
How much extra does BOG pay on average?
On a £10 win bet, the average BOG boosted winner paid £20.20 more. The median was £5.00, because a few big drifters lift the average.
Does BOG apply to each way bets?
Yes. The place part is also settled at the bigger of the price taken and SP. On our day, place parts gained £423.54 across 47 placed horses on £10 each way bets.
Is it better to bet early or wait for SP?
With BOG, betting early won on our day. Morning prices plus BOG returned 20% more than SP on the same winners. Without BOG, early betting is a gamble on which way the price moves.
Can BOG ever pay less than the price I took?
No. BOG pays the bigger of the two prices. Rule 4 deductions for non runners can still reduce what you are paid, whichever price is used.
Which races benefit most from BOG?
Big field handicaps and races late in the day drifted most often. Most of the extra money came from winners priced 9/1 to 20/1 in the morning.
Do all bookmakers offer Best Odds Guaranteed?
BOG is standard at most of the best racing betting sites in the UK, covering UK and Irish racing, but start times, payout caps and eligibility vary. Check the terms before you bet, and check your account still qualifies.
Morning prices: Betfred racecards with timestamped trace times from 8:31am to 8:41am. Results and SPs: official results for the same test day. 45 races, 437 runners.