Implied chance
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prices come from the public data of Kalshi and are a snapshot, not a quote. A price of 40 means the market implies a 40% chance, roughly 6/4 against. Kalshi is a US regulated exchange that accepts members internationally, but several countries are on its restricted list, so check the local position before acting on any price here.
Source market: kalshi-kxrecssnber-27
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