Implied chance
If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prices come from the public data of Kalshi and are a snapshot, not a quote. A price of 40 means the market implies a 40% chance, roughly 6/4 against. Kalshi is a US regulated exchange that accepts members internationally, but several countries are on its restricted list, so check the local position before acting on any price here.
Source market: kalshi-kxcitrini-28jul01
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