If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prices come from the public data of Kalshi and are a snapshot, not a quote. A price of 40 means the market implies a 40% chance, roughly 6/4 against. Kalshi is a US regulated exchange that accepts members internationally, but several countries are on its restricted list, so check the local position before acting on any price here.
Source market: kalshi-kxtaiwanlvl4
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